NFL Conference Championship Picks

Well after a disastrous 0-4 weekend, we pick ourselves up off the ground and keep on. At this point, who the hell knows what's going to happen this weekend? We are coming off a divisional round where the Cardinals went to Carolina as 10 point dogs and smacked around the Panthers, the Ravens went to big bad Tennessee as 3 point dogs and played mistake free yet again, and the Eagles went to the home of the defending champs and muscled them around. The only non-surprise was Pittsburgh taking care of San Diego, and by the time they kicked off all the other weird stuff had already happened and everybody who picked San Diego for an upset knew the pick was doomed. Unfortunately, the picks can't be posted at 4:10 on Sunday, and we have to guess what the hell is going to happen. Which leads us to Championship Weekend. Cardinals. Eagles. Ravens. Steelers... Get excited.

CARDINALS (+4) over Eagles

I obviously have no idea what is going to happen in this game. I don't think anybody does. What I do know is that EVERYBODY loves the Eagles, as evidenced by the line moving a full point towards them this week (never good), I know that the Arizona home crowd should be worth at least three points (it will be loud), and I know that I am absolutely terrified of the possibility of Kurt Warner turning it over 6 times. Absolutely petrified. Kurt Warner against Jim Johnson's blitzes? Yikes. There is a real possibility of Warner getting so shaken by the blitzes and subsequent fumbles, that he cannot overcome it and has a game like Delhomme's last week. In which case CARDINALS (+4) will look very bad. This is a real possibilty.

But I have hope, or something like it. I have seen this team make a drastic shift. We can no longer judge this Arizona squad on blowout losses they suffered in the regular season. It's a different team. Somehow, they completely transformed over the course of two weeks. And they are not running into a juggernaut in Philadelphia. This team went 9-6-1. They don't do anything great, they don't have a superstar at any position. They're obviously a good team, as they've made it this far. But 4 point road favorites are reserved for juggernauts, not for 9-6-1 teams. Which is why I say thank you, Vegas, and take the points. What else are you supposed to do in a game where nobody has any clue what will happen?

The Pick: Arizona 29, Philadelphia 23



Ravens (+6) over STEELERS

Again, thank you Vegas, I'll have the points please. This game is so much like the Ravens-Titans slobberknocker last weekend. Two teams from the same mold, great defenses, can run the ball, well-coached, blah blah blah. And they've played two great games this year. At Pittsburgh, 23-20 Steelers in OT. And at Baltimore, 13-9 Steelers (Santonio Holmes did he break the plane game). My question is, why is the line 6 points? Haven't these teams proven themselves to be dead even? I know the Steelers won both games, but the second win is very debateable, and the first ended regulation in a tie. Bottom line, these teams are even. So I find this line a little bit high. Pittsburgh did look fantastic last week, and the Ravens probably stole one from Tennessee, but this isn't the case of an ascending team versus a descending team. Both are extremely confident, both hate each other, both will come to play. There is no need to analyze this game from an X's and O's standpoint. The defenses will dominate, and points will be at a premium. And in a situation like that between closely matched teams, I'll grab the 6 points and hold on...

The Pick: Pittsburgh 16, Baltimore 13


In review, I'm taking the points this weekend and hoping for 1-1. That's the best any of us can expect at this point.