Today is the Height of My Confidence in the Tigers

( I only wish they'd sign her to a 10 year deal)

Hope springs eternal. Or something like that. Whatever the hell that means I think it was created to describe my hopes for the 2009 Detroit Tigers season. For some reason, I've become increasingly optimistic about their chances this summer. Just one month ago I was Debbie Downer, and I could have taken up 3 hours of your time destroying their pitching, hitting, fielding, and General Managing. But just as the snow and ice is beginning to melt away, my cold and dark exterior has been lifted and I have become a beacon of hope for our hardballers.

It may be because I've read numerous optimistic and good-news stories about the Tigers in the past week. It may be because preliminary reports on the rehab of Jeremy Bonderman, Joel Zumaya, and Gary Sheffield have been glowing. It may just be because I want to believe they have a chance. It's quite inexplicable, but I think they have as damn good of a shot as anybody. Let's take a very early, pre-spring training look at the Tigers.

Notable Additions: RP Brandon Lyon, SP Edwin Jackson, C Gerald Laird, C Matt Treanor, SS Adam Everett

Notable Losses: SP Kenny Rogers, RP Todd Jones, SS Edgar Renteria, OF Matt Joyce, C Ivan Rodriguez

Prospective Starting Pitchers: Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Edwin Jackson, Armando Galarraga, Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, Zach Miner

Projected Starting Nine:

CF Curtis Granderson

2B Placido Polanco

DH Gary Sheffield

1B Miguel Cabrera

RF Magglio Ordonez

LF Carlos Guillen

SS Adam Everett

3B Brandon Inge

C Gerald Laird

Shockingly enough, that ain't bad! Look at the top 4 starting pitchers. They are actually good! And the defense is markedly improved this year. The left side of the infield is the best in the league, the infield as a whole is very good, Laird is a good defensive catcher, and Granderson is a great centerfielder. The corner outfield positions are a big question mark, and although I initially laughed at the idea of Guillen in LF, I've completely warmed up to the idea. He has good speed, a strong arm, incredibly high baseball IQ, and will work hard everyday to learn the position. I've convinced myself this team has a great defensive core.

The big fat elephant in the room remains the bullpen. It was the weak link last year, and besides Lyon, it hasn't been adressed in free agency. But upon closer inspection it won't be train-wreck terrible. Only 5 men can start, so they have Robertson, Willis, or Miner to add to the pen. They also have a few trade pieces depending on who makes the starting 5 cut. So they might not be done. And the players they have aren't bad. Joel Zumaya is supposedly 100% to start spring training. Fernando Rodney will be much more comfortable in the set-up role, as Captain Crooked Hat isn't made up to be a Closer. Freddy Dolsi looks to have a bright future. And the improved defense should help the starting pitchers to squeak out an extra inning.

While I'm not extremely confident in the bullpen, somehow I've become optimistic about this squad. I'm sure they will receive some heart-breaking injury news during spring training, or Joel Zumaya will blow out his shoulder waving to a girl or something, but now is the time for optimism. Like the weather, things are starting to look better for the Tigers.

One Week Late: Michigan's Tourney Chances Up In Flames

I had meant to write this blog over a week ago, but it remains true. Michigan can start preparing for the NIT. They will not be invited to the NCAA tournament, and only winning the Big Ten tournament will get them an invite. They have a couple of fantastic out-of-conference wins against UCLA and Duke, but they haven't done enough (anything) in conference play to warrant an invite. They have lost 5 of 6, and stand at 8th in the Big Ten with a 4-6 record. Oh, and after Penn State tonight, their next two games are at #1 UConn and vs. #13 Michigan State. Things are not looking good for the Maize and Blue in the near future, and they don't look great on the tournament resume. Here it is:

Record: 13-8 (4-6 Big Ten)

RPI Rank: 58

Strength of Schedule: 21st

vs. Top 25: 2-4

vs. Top 50: 3-6

Road/Neutral: 3-6

Conference RPI Rank: 2

Besides the two marquee wins, Michigan doesn't have much else to stand on. Now if they beat Penn State, UConn, and Michigan State this whole entry will be voided and Michigan will be in a good position to receive an invite. It's just unlikely. And a loss to Penn State tonight will eliminate any chance. Weeks ago I tried to tell the Michigan fans it was crazy to think their invitation was sealed, and they are now beginning to realize that. It will be an uphill climb for the Wolverines to make the big boy tournament field.

Michigan State Destroys Minnesota

Whoa. Michigan State completely destroyed Minnesota last night, effectively ending any question of the outcome with about 7 minutes left in the first half. Durrell Summers outscored Minnesota in the first half 17-16, leading MSU to a 42-16 first half lead. It was a beautiful display of dominance. Minnesota also played terrible. The game puts MSU 1 1/2 games ahead of the pack in the Big Ten race, and positions them well for conference title push.

There isn't much to dissect about this blowout, so I wanted to take a minute to examine some hypotheticals about MSU's NCAA tournament seeding prospects. ESPN's Joe Lunardi is the expert on the subject, and he's one of the few talking-heads with a track record of reliability. His latest bracket has MSU as a 3 seed in the Midwest, with Duke as the 1, Louisville as the 2, and Kansas as the 4 in that Region. Now, I would love this spot. They would play the early rounds in Minneapolis and the late rounds in Indianapolis, plus the Final Four is in Detroit. They would never have to leave Big Ten country. But things will almost assuredly change and we can wonder what will happen as their resume changes for better or worse. As it stands now, MSU has a very impressive tournament resume. Here it is:

Record: 18-4 (8-2 Big Ten)

RPI Rank: 4

Strength of Schedule: 2nd

vs. Top 25: 6-1

vs. Top 50: 8-1

Road/Neutral: 10-2

Conference RPI Rank: 2

So obviously MSU has a very nice resume. They are probably the highest rated 3 seed in Lunardi's bracket, and could make a case for a 2 seed as it is. But what will happen if they put together another long win streak and win the Big Ten tournament? I feel like a 2 seed will be their ceiling. The home losses to Northwestern and Penn State and the brutal loss to Maryland are all considered "Bad" losses. Although Penn State is a tough team this year, they still haven't changed their national reputation. If Michigan State wins out through conference play and wins the Big Ten tournament then they will obviously have a strong case for a #1 seed. But if it means they will have to travel West or South, then I'm not sure its for the best. I would rather them have a #2 seed in the Midwest than a #1 seed in the West. On the opposite hand if they stumble down the stretch finish in the 3-5 range in the Big Ten and lose early in the Big Ten tournament, they could drop as low as a 5 seed. It will be interesting to see how they position themselves as the season moves along, but they control their own tournament placement as it stands now.