TITANS (-3) over Ravens
These teams are built from the same mold. Both rely on their defenses and move the ball with a commitment to the run. Neither has a great QB, and neither has a spectacular pass-catcher. Both teams are well-coached and rarely hurt themselves with turnovers or mental lapses. They are very similar and very evenly-matched. Vegas agrees, giving 3 points to Baltimore and basically offsetting the standard 3 points for home-field.
With such a difficult game to pick, we have to turn to the most important players in the game, the Quarterbacks. And I don’t feel comfortable backing Joe Flacco on the road in the playoffs for the second time. A wildcard game in Miami is MUCH different than a divisional game in Tennessee. It will be cold, the crowd will be jacked, and the opposing defense will be much more formidable. While Kerry Collins will never be confused with Johnny Unitas, he has been in these situations before and will not be fazed. As long as Collins avoids back-breaking interceptions, the Titans can rely on their defense to win the field position battles.
And why is it that everyone forgets the regular season when the playoffs come around? It’s like because Tennessee had a bye last week they got worse. Everybody seems to forget that the Titans were the AFC’s best team all year, undefeated through 10 games, have a ridiculously good running attack, and have a great defense. Isn’t that the exact formula for January playoff success? I remember in October and November all the talking-heads agreeing “You won’t want to see this Titans team in the playoffs!” and “This Titans team is built for playoff success!” And although Baltimore has been on a really impressive streak, I’ll question the impressiveness of some wins. The win in Dallas doesn’t look so great anymore. They went 2-5 against playoff teams in the regular season. Miami was an overachieving team that they matched up perfectly with. All while Tennessee went 7-1 at home and went 4-0 against playoff teams (excluding the Week 17 throwaway vs. Indianapolis). I’m sticking with the reliable team that has proven itself to me over the course of 4 months.
The Pick: Tennesee 19, Baltimore 13
PANTHERS (-10) over Cardinals
Are we supposed to believe the Cardinals are good? After beating an average road team in Atlanta, due in large part to a defensive resurgence led by their home crowd and D-Line? Ummm, no thank you, I’m going to pass on any belief that the Cards are good and Vegas is too, apparently. They stuck this game with a hefty 10 point spread, undoubtedly tempting the bettors with Arizona and the points. To those tempted bettors I offer you this: 56-35, 48-20, and 47-7. What is it? It’s the score of Arizona’s losses to at the Jets, Eagles, and Patriots, respectively. I know Arizona lost at Carolina by only four points, 27-23 in the regular season. But this Cardinals team went 3-5 on the road this year with the wins coming at San Francisco, at St Louis, and at Seattle. They haven’t won on the East Coast all year, and went 1-4 against playoff teams during the regular season. Meanwhile, Carolina has gone 8-0 at home behind a great running attack and stout defense. Again, the formula for success in the playoffs. I don’t think there is any way that Arizona wins this game. The large variable for the Panthers is Jake Delhomme, but he won’t matter in this game. They won’t need him to win this game and will rely on DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to move the chains. It also doesn’t hurt to have a game-breaker in Steve Smith. While I don’t doubt that Arizona will score a few points, they have proven themselves to be a bad road team. 10 point playoff spreads are big and scary, but Arizona’s road woes should comfort you here.
The Pick: Panthers 38, Cardinals 20
GIANTS (-4) over Eagles
My favorite line of the weekend. What exactly has this Eagles team done to warrant such a small line? Yes, they’ve gone a nice 4-1 against playoff teams this year. They smashed Dallas and Arizona at home. But they also tied Cincinnati 13-13. They were dominated by Baltimore. They lost 10-3 in a must-win game at Washington in Week 16! And I’m not impressed by their win in the Meadowlands, considering the Giants were days removed from Plaxico Burress’ misfire and all that came along with it. Sure Philadelphia won in Minnesota last week, but are we supposed to be impressed by beating a team led by Tarvaris Jackson? And remember, Philly could hardly move the ball against the Vikings defense without Pat Williams and Darren Sharper. Are we expecting them to score more than 13 against the Giants defense in cold, windy New Jersey?
The Giants have been considered one of the two best teams in the league all year long. At one point, they were the consensus pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, before it all came apart after Plaxico shot himself. But did it all come apart? They won in a classic against Carolina in a battle for home-field advantage only 3 weeks ago. It should remind you that this team is for real, capable of running it down your throat and stopping you when they need to. And I’m not buying Philadelphia resurgence. They made it into these playoffs based on Tampa Bay and Dallas collapses, never really threatening to make it until 4:15 on Week 17. Additionally, their Head Coach is a terrible game manager, their QB habitually disappears in big moments, and they can’t run the ball. I think I’ll take the defending Champs at home -4…
The Pick: Giants 26, Eagles 13
Chargers (+6) over STEELERS
My least favorite line of the weekend. In any regular season week this is a definite stay-away game, but there’s no hiding in the playoffs. While I feel confident in the NFC games, the AFC games are toss-ups, and because I like Tennessee and haven’t picked an underdog to cover yet… We’ll go with the Chargers. It is not a confident pick. They are 9-8. They have no business in these playoffs over a deserving team like New England. They have a terrible coach. They will be without LaDainian Tomlinson. But they do have some attractive qualities. They have an elite QB, arguably the best of the remaining QB’s in the playoffs. They have an absolute weapon of a punter in Mike Scifres, who could be VERY important in the sloppy field in Pittsburgh. And they have a very talented defense with the ability to sack the QB. Which is exactly what Pittsburgh has trouble with. Ben Roethlisberger is coming off a concussion and a regular season in which he took immense punishment, thanks in large part to his O-Lines inability to stop the pass rush.
However, you must play on both sides of the ball and Pittsburgh has a great defense. The best defense in the league. I do not doubt their ability to slow down Darren Sproles, even to stop him outright. They should keep San Diego from scoring often, and may even create points themselves. This should lead to a low scoring, field-position game; much like the last time these teams met. And thanks in large part to the Chargers’ huge special teams advantage, I’m going with them to not only cover, but win outright.
The Pick: Chargers 23, Steelers 20
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