Michigan State Destroys Minnesota

Whoa. Michigan State completely destroyed Minnesota last night, effectively ending any question of the outcome with about 7 minutes left in the first half. Durrell Summers outscored Minnesota in the first half 17-16, leading MSU to a 42-16 first half lead. It was a beautiful display of dominance. Minnesota also played terrible. The game puts MSU 1 1/2 games ahead of the pack in the Big Ten race, and positions them well for conference title push.

There isn't much to dissect about this blowout, so I wanted to take a minute to examine some hypotheticals about MSU's NCAA tournament seeding prospects. ESPN's Joe Lunardi is the expert on the subject, and he's one of the few talking-heads with a track record of reliability. His latest bracket has MSU as a 3 seed in the Midwest, with Duke as the 1, Louisville as the 2, and Kansas as the 4 in that Region. Now, I would love this spot. They would play the early rounds in Minneapolis and the late rounds in Indianapolis, plus the Final Four is in Detroit. They would never have to leave Big Ten country. But things will almost assuredly change and we can wonder what will happen as their resume changes for better or worse. As it stands now, MSU has a very impressive tournament resume. Here it is:

Record: 18-4 (8-2 Big Ten)

RPI Rank: 4

Strength of Schedule: 2nd

vs. Top 25: 6-1

vs. Top 50: 8-1

Road/Neutral: 10-2

Conference RPI Rank: 2

So obviously MSU has a very nice resume. They are probably the highest rated 3 seed in Lunardi's bracket, and could make a case for a 2 seed as it is. But what will happen if they put together another long win streak and win the Big Ten tournament? I feel like a 2 seed will be their ceiling. The home losses to Northwestern and Penn State and the brutal loss to Maryland are all considered "Bad" losses. Although Penn State is a tough team this year, they still haven't changed their national reputation. If Michigan State wins out through conference play and wins the Big Ten tournament then they will obviously have a strong case for a #1 seed. But if it means they will have to travel West or South, then I'm not sure its for the best. I would rather them have a #2 seed in the Midwest than a #1 seed in the West. On the opposite hand if they stumble down the stretch finish in the 3-5 range in the Big Ten and lose early in the Big Ten tournament, they could drop as low as a 5 seed. It will be interesting to see how they position themselves as the season moves along, but they control their own tournament placement as it stands now.