Michigan State travels to Ann Arbor tonight to meet Michigan in the season's only meeting between the same-state rivals. The two programs have had starkly different successes in the past decade, and there seems to be a talent gap again this year. Although the Wolverine's have improved greatly in John Beilein's second year, they will enter this game as home underdogs.
Michigan State is coming off a week that included 28 and 29 point wins. They have established themselves as the prohibitive favorites in the Big Ten, and now sit 2.5 games in front of the rest of the conference. They will put an unblemished Big Ten road record on the line tonight at Crisler, having won all 5 of their Big Ten road games to date. The Michigan team standing in their way split 2 games last week, and has lost 5 of their last 7. Saturday's loss to #1 UConn was a gritty loss, and although the existence of moral victories is debateable Michigan must have gained from confidence from going punch for punch with the top team in the country.
Michigan will pose some matchup problems for Michigan State. They will run a variety of zone defenses, and Michigan State has had great trouble with the zone at times this year. If UM forces MSU into long-range shots and they aren't falling, Michigan should have no problem hanging with MSU all game. Manny Harris also poses a bit of a matchup issue. Raymar Morgan will not play tonight, and although MSU has the athletes to matchup with Harris their depth is eliminated at that spot with Morgan's absence. Expect a variety of defenders to shadow Harris, including Durrell Summers, Travis Walton, and Chris Allen. All of those defenders will be shorter than Harris, and in Walton's case, 3-4 inches shorter. Harris could give the Spartans headaches if he can find a way to exploit individual matchups. But this game, as with most Michigan games, will come down to the Wolverine's long range shooting.
Everybody knows that Michigan chucks up a lot of 3's. Tonight should be no different, and whether the shots fall or not will affect multiple areas of the game. Made three's not only help out Michigan adding points to their score, but they will help keep points off the board for MSU. Michigan State loves to run the floor, pushing it at any opportunity. Missed three's will play perfectly into Michigan State's gameplan, as it will allow them to turn rebounds into instant offense, while Michigan is not afforded any time to organize defensively. If Michigan makes its three point shots, the extra second or two MSU takes to inbound the ball will slow down their fast-break game and allow Michigan to set its defense. And Michigan will shoot the three. MSU's man-to-man defense should force Michigan into a lot of pick and roll or kick and shoot plays, but Michigan will pull the trigger at every opportunity.
Las Vegas lists the Spartans as 4.5 point favorites in this game, but anything could happen. MSU is the more athletic and skilled team, but when Michigan makes its shots and plays great defense they have proven they can beat any team in the country. Add in the unique lighting of Crisler Arena and this game could be very close. Expect a tight game, with Michigan State's athleticism, depth, and superior rebounding to be the difference.
The Pick: Michigan State 64 Michigan 59
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